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Analisis Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Implikasinya pada Perekonomian Indonesia Periode 1990.I - 2004.II

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Perubahan nilai tukar rupiah merupakan interaksi antara faktor-faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi. Tujuan dari penelitian tentang analisis nilai tukar rupiah dan implikasinya pada perekonomian Indonesia untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi perubahan nilai tukar rupiah dan bagaimana implikasi perubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode eksplanatori yaitu untuk menguji hipotesis tentang adanya hubungan simultanitas antar variabel yang diteliti dengan mengembangkan sifat penelitian verifikatif yaitu melakukan berbagai pengujian terhadap setiap langkah penelitian yang dilakukan. Data penelitian merupakan data sekunder yang diambil dari sumber penelitian yang kredibel baik dari dalam maupun dari luar negeri seperti Bank Indonesia (BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), World Bank dan International Financial Statistics (IFS). Teknik analisis menggunakan metode analisa simultaneous equation model (SEM) dengan menggunakan metode two stage least square (TSLS), error correction model (ECM) dan Insukendro Error Correction Model (I-ECM).Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel rasio tingkat bunga simpanan domestik terhadap tingkat bunga internasional berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar sebesar -271,8652. Variabel aliran modal berpengaruh secara negatif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar AS sebesar -1,376851. Variabel neraca pembayaran berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah sebesar 2,090189. Jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah sebesar 0,029617. Variabel nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat investasi sebesar 0,852291. Variabel nilai tukar rupiah juga berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap variabel impor sebesar -0,694. Nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah hutang luar negeri pemerintah sebesar 0,594222. Variabel nilai tukar rupiah juga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap variabel ekspor sebesar 0,683035. Variabel nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang sebesar 14,55877. Variabel krisis ekonomi berpengaruh terhadap depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah sebesar 1807,631. Sedangkan kebijakan intervensi pemerintah melalui instrumen moneter SBI tidak efektif dalam mengendalikan fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah. 

The changing of exchange rates is due to interaction between economics factors and non economics factors. The aim of this research of exchange rates analysis and its implications on Indonesian economy is to analyse some factors that affect exchange rate and their implications on Indonesian economy period 1990 quarterly I until 2004 quarterly II. Analytical method utilized in this research is explanatory method which is to test hypothesis about simultaneous reliationship among variable that research, by developing the carateristics of verificative research doing some testing at every step research. Data employed is the secondary data taken from the source of date that have credibel both domestic and foreign such as Bank Indonesia (BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), World Bank, International Financial Statistics (IFS). Analytical technique use simultaneous equation model with two stage least square (TSLS), error correction model (ECM) and Insukendro Error Correction Model (I-ECM).Result of the research shows that ratio between domestic interest rate and international interest rate affected exchange rate negative and significantly in the number 2718652. Capital flow variable affected negative and significantly to exchange rate in the number -1,376851. Balance of payment variable affected positive and significantly to exchange rate in the number 2,090189. Exchange rate variable affected negative and significantly to investment rate in the number 0,892291. Exchange rate variable affected negative and significantly to import variable in the number -0,694. Exchange rate variable affected positive and significantly to total of government foreign debt variable in the number 0,594222. Exchange rate variable affected positive and significantly to export variable in the number 0,683035. Exchange rate variable affected positive and significantly to demand of money variable in the number 14,55877. Economic crisis variable affected to depresiation of exchange rate variable in the number 1807,631. Than government intervention policy trough SBI monetary instrument is not effectively to control exchange rate fluctuation. 

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D980

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Bandung : ., 2005

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Indonesia

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